Review assumptions against observed outcomes.
Preserve the original underwrite and use comparable evidence to challenge the next case.
Establish the initial investment case.
The management note provides the proposed cheque, reported revenue and recurring revenue share. Compare these inputs with the family’s investment criteria.
Preserve the original underwrite
Retain the forecast, investment date and evidence available when the case was assessed. Keep later revisions separate. The learning record should allow the team to compare its original assumptions with subsequent observations without changing the basis of the comparison.
Establish whether outcomes are comparable
Record the outcome measure, observation date and reason for any exclusion. Show missing outcomes and the limits of small or selected samples. Compare like-for-like measures before using the evidence to assess the reliability of an earlier assumption.
Use the evidence to challenge assumptions
Avenset’s calibration view compares observed outcomes with the original forecasts and identifies excluded observations. Use it to question the assumptions in a new case and record the analyst’s judgement. Historical observations do not establish a forecast for the next investment.
