Consolidated holdings
Holdings, legal entities and reporting dates in one investment picture.
Review capital, exposure and material changes.
Review the family’s holdings, sector exposure and operating updates. Retain the date and basis of approved valuations.
August board updateRevenue and cash runway · management report
For reviewInvestment measureApprovedProposed
Revenue£8.6m£7.9m
Cash runway9 months6 months
Reported holding value£5.8mUnchanged
Compare the incoming evidence with the approved figures before accepting the update.
Post-investment exposure
Look through sectors and check concentration after the proposed cheque.
Supporting evidence
Move from a number to the approved source without rebuilding the record.
From underwrite to outcome
Review assumptions against observed outcomes.
Compare original forecasts with observed outcomes. Keep exclusions and uncertainty visible; use the result to frame a question, not promise a return.
Historical calibration
Compare forecasts with observed outcomes.
Compare historical enterprise value forecasts with observed exits, then inspect a transparent adjustment to today’s assumptions.
Current valuation assumptions
These are analyst inputs, not live market multiples. Changing them does not overwrite the saved ownership model.
Enterprise value / starting range£28.8m to £43.2m
Enterprise value / adjusted range£24.5m to £36.7m
Equity value / after net debt£24.5m to £36.7m
0.85×Median outcome / forecast
4 included observations · limited history
4 included observations · limited history
Forecast and observed enterprise value
GBP millions · selected cohort · excluded observations omitted
Forecast EVObserved EV
| Include | Company / source | Forecast date | Exit date | Forecast EV | Observed EV | Outcome / forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alder SoftwareAlder investment case / exit review | 2019-06-30 | 2024-06-30 | £50.0m | £40.0m | 0.80× | |
| Cobalt SystemsCobalt investment case / exit review | 2020-03-31 | 2025-03-31 | £40.0m | £36.0m | 0.90× | |
| Rowan AnalyticsRowan investment case / exit review | 2020-06-30 | 2025-06-30 | £60.0m | £48.0m | 0.80× | |
| Silverbirch DigitalSilverbirch investment case / exit review | 2020-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | £30.0m | £33.0m | 1.10× |
Method, limitations and valuation governance
The adjustment is the median of included observed exit EV / original forecast EV. Current EV = annual revenue × selected revenue multiple × adjustment. Equity = max(0, EV − net debt). This small sample heuristic does not control for holding period, growth, market conditions, geography or security rights. It is not an independently validated model, a statistical confidence interval or approved fair value. Similarity of sector alone does not establish comparability. Exclude incomparable observations; do not treat a larger sample as evidence of accuracy.
Historical outcomes are recorded separately from original forecasts. Exclusion changes the calculation without erasing the record. Professional valuation requires a documented technique, transaction calibration, current market context and accountable review. IPEV 2025 guidelines, sections 2.6 to 2.7.
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Opportunity + source
Establish the initial investment case.
The management note provides the proposed cheque, reported revenue and recurring revenue share. Compare these inputs with the family’s investment criteria.
The investment team remains responsible for the decision.
The next investmentAvenset
Bring your next
investment
into focus.
Review a new opportunity against your mandate. See the supporting evidence, material risks and questions for diligence.